30-year mortgage rate back over 5%

Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates soared this week in acontinued volatile market as the key 30-year loan rate jumped back over 5%.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reports that the 30-year rate rose to 5.22% from 4.99% last week. By contrast, the rate stood at 2.87% a year ago.

The average rate on 15-year, fixed-rate mortgages, popular among those looking to refinance their homes, increased to 4.59% from 4.26%.

Last week the 30-year rate fell below 5% for the first time in four months, days after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark interest rate by three-quarters of a point in its most aggressive drive in over three decades to tame record-high inflation.

Remembering Nixon’s Wage and Price Controls

Remember “TARP,” “Too Big to Fail,” “Government Motors,” “pay czar,” the buzzwords of the Bush‐​Obama era? They reflected a disturbing trend toward presidential interference in economic life.

Forty years ago this week, President Richard Nixon showed us just how dangerous unchecked executive power can be to the free‐​enterprise system.

On Aug. 15, 1971, in a nationally televised address, Nixon announced, “I am today ordering a freeze on all prices and wages throughout the United States.”

After a 90‐​day freeze, increases would have to be approved by a “Pay Board” and a “Price Commission,” with an eye toward eventually lifting controls — conveniently, after the 1972 election.

Putting the U.S. economy “into a permanent straitjacket would … stifle the expansion of our free enterprise system,” Nixon said. As President George W. Bush put it in 2008, sometimes you have to “abandon free‐​market principles to save the free‐​market system.”

There was no national emergency in the summer of ’71: unemployment stood at 6 percent, inflation only a point higher than it is now. Yet, after Nixon’s announcement, the markets rallied, the press swooned, and, even though his speech pre‐​empted the popular Western Bonanza, the people loved it, too — 75 percent backed the plan in polls.

As Nobel Prize‐​winning economist Milton Friedman correctly predicted, however, Nixon’s gambit ended “in utter failure and the emergence into the open of the suppressed inflation.” The people would pay the price — but not until after he’d coasted to a landslide re‐​election in 1972 over Democratic Sen. George McGovern.

By the time Nixon reimposed a temporary freeze in June 1973, Daniel Yergin and Joseph Stanislaw explain in The Commanding Heights: The Battle for the World Economy, it was obvious that price controls didn’t work: “Ranchers stopped shipping their cattle to the market, farmers drowned their chickens, and consumers emptied the shelves of supermarkets.”

Several lessons from Nixon’s folly remain highly relevant today.

First, it’s usually Congress that lays the foundation for an imperial presidency with unconstitutional delegations of authority to the executive branch. The Economic Stabilization Act of 1970 gave Nixon legislative cover for his actions.

The act was “a political dare,” according to top Nixon official George Shultz — the Democrats thought Nixon wouldn’t use the powers they’d granted him, but he called their bluff.

Second, the damage presidents do with economic powers they shouldn’t have can take years to repair. Price hikes from the 1973 Arab oil embargo made it politically difficult to unwind controls on gasoline, which led to the gas lines of the late 1970s.

Third, the episode shows the enduring relevance of cartoonist Walt Kelly’s Pogo Principle: “We have met the enemy and he is us.” As noted, the freeze was overwhelmingly popular. “Bold” presidential action on the economy often is, even when “just stand there — don’t do something!” would be wiser counsel.

In the recent debt‐​limit fight, for example, liberal Democrats who’d spent eight years railing against Bush’s executive unilateralism begged Obama to break the law and unilaterally raise the debt ceiling, using a fig leaf of a constitutional argument based on the 14th Amendment.

Occasionally, though, we learn something from our mistakes. As Shultz told Nixon in 1973, at least the debacle had convinced everyone “that wage‐​price controls are not the answer.”

Ironically, Nixon’s actions also helped galvanize an emerging libertarian movement opposed to the bipartisan welfare‐​warfare state. “I remember the day very clearly,” Rep. Ron Paul, R‑Texas, recalled in 2001, saying the events of Aug. 15, 1971, drove the reluctant young obstetrician into politics.

For years, Paul waged a one‐​man war against economic nostrums and presidential command and control. Lately, though — with the rise of the Tea Party and his strong showing in the Ames straw poll — he’s not looking so lonely anymore.

  • The Cato Institute

4 Factors Affecting US Gas Prices

4) 14% – Distribution and marketing
Filling stations make 5-7 cents/gallon
Make money on food

3) 14% – Refineries
Fairly Stable
No large scale refineries built since 1977

2) 16% – Federal and State Taxs and fees
Federal gas tax no raise since 1993
18.4 cents/gallon
Germany – $2.80 per gallon

1) 56% – Global price of oil
Import about 1/2 the oil we use – 9 million barrels per day, 42 gallons per barrel
378 million gallons per day
OPEC – formed in 1960
World Oil Reserves: OPEC – 1189 billion barrels, Non-OPEC 308.18 billion barrels
Russia added to OPEC in 2019, now called OPEC+
Price determined by Supply and Demand
1973 OPEC stopped export of oil to US- GAS LINES
US oil companies received a $10 billion bailout in 2020

Mortgage rates make biggest leap in 35 years

Average long-term U.S. mortgage rates had their biggest one-week jump in 35 years with the Federal Reserve this week raising its key rate by three-quarters of a point in bid to tame high inflation.

Mortgage buyer Freddie Mac reported Thursday that the 30-year rate climbed from 5.23% last week to 5.78% this week, the highest its been since November 2008 during the housing crisis.

Wednesday’s rate hike by the Fed was its biggest in a single action since 1994.

The brisk jump in rates, along with a sharp increase in home prices, has been pushing potential homebuyers out of the market. Mortgage applications are down more than 15% from last year and refinancings are down more than 70%, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Starbucks workers in Oviedo vote to unionize — the first Orlando-area store to do so

On Thursday, Starbucks workers in Orlando voted 24 to 6 to unionize with Starbucks Workers United, joining at least four other Starbucks locations in Florida — and over 135 Starbucks stores in 28 states — that have voted #UnionYes.

Even on a Zoom call, the tension was palpable. But there was excitement, too. Early afternoon on Thursday, over Zoom, a staff member of the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB) counted each vote that had been mailed in by Starbucks workers at the Mitchell Hammock & City Plaza location in Oviedo, Florida over the last month.

One by one.
Anticipation. Nerves.
Then, the final tally.
24 — Yes, for the union.
6 — No.
Zero void ballots. An easy majority.

Continue reading

Florida’s median home price soars to $410,000

The median home price in Florida hit $410,000 in April, according to a report from the Florida Realtors trade group, further eroding the options for working-class residents to find housing.

All of Florida’s 22 metropolitan statistical areas experienced an increase in home prices over the past year, most in double digits, with prices continuing to rise. The statewide year-over-year increase was 21.8% percent, the report found.

Only the Tallahassee metro, with a median home price of $299,000, saw a decrease from its price in February, which was $306,950.

The Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA had the sixth-highest home prices, with a median of $425,000, a 23.9% raise. This is higher than April’s report from the Orlando Regional Realtor Association, which includes a broader coverage area than the MSA.

The report put Orlando above the Tampa region, with a median of $404,900, but below the Sarasota area’s $500,000.

Employers post 11.5M jobs in March

Employers posted a record 11.5 million job openings in March, meaning the United States now has an unprecedented two job openings for every person who is unemployed.

Bureau of Labor Statistics data reveal millions of Americans are seeking better paying jobs, while also contributing to the biggest inflation surge in four decades.

A record 4.5 million Americans quit their jobs in March — a sign that they are confident they can find better pay or improved working conditions elsewhere.

Growing crisis of housing affordability

When the government released March inflation data, it showed that prices increased by 8.5% from a year ago,the fastest pace since December 1981. Gas (+48.8%),food (+8.8%) and used cars (+35.3%) showed eye-popping advances, but another line item is also worrisome: shelter, which increased by 5% annually.

That may not seem so bad when compared to those other categories, but shelter accounted for nearly two-thirds of the monthly increase in the Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy figures.

The U.S. has a burgeoning housing affordability crisis, and it’s likely to persist longer than high prices in grocery stores and at gas pumps.

Continue reading