When the government released March inflation data, it showed that prices increased by 8.5% from a year ago,the fastest pace since December 1981. Gas (+48.8%),food (+8.8%) and used cars (+35.3%) showed eye-popping advances, but another line item is also worrisome: shelter, which increased by 5% annually.
That may not seem so bad when compared to those other categories, but shelter accounted for nearly two-thirds of the monthly increase in the Core CPI, which removes the volatile food and energy figures.
The U.S. has a burgeoning housing affordability crisis, and it’s likely to persist longer than high prices in grocery stores and at gas pumps.
The problem can be traced back to the bursting housing bubble of the 2000s. National home prices peaked in July 2006 and then bottomed out in February 2012, luring large investors to act. Private equity firms raised money, bought up as many distressed properties as they could, fixed them up and rented them out.
Although rents weren’t going crazy yet, the money that these firms collected provided a better stream of income than they could find in the bond market, so they just held on.
The reduction in inventory, along with the slow pace of building in the aftermath of the housing crash, led to a shortage of homes and pushed up prices.
“Real house prices, prices adjusted for inflation, have steadily increased in the U.S. since 2012,” according to analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
The pandemic only exacerbated the problem as buyers armed with excess savings and taking advantage of ultralow mortgage rates—flooded markets and gobbled up what ever was available. As demand soared, prices dwarfed wage increases, damaging affordability. Evidence points to “abnormal U.S. housing market
behavior for the first time since the boom of the early 2000s.”
Before you start dusting off the Great Recession playback, there are factors that may not spell disaster. Households are in better financial condition, and banks have not lost their minds with out-of-control lending. But those facts only lessen the risk of a full-blown financial crisis; they do not solve the affordability issue.
Just 15 months after mortgage rates bottomed out, 30-year fixed-rate mortgages have jumped above 5%,the highest in over a decade. That has made the cost of carrying a home for the typical buyer
a lot more expensive. “The combination of rising mortgage rates, elevated home prices and tight inventory are making the pursuit of home ownership the most expensive in a generation,” according to
Freddie Mac.
The news is not much better for renters, who are also contending with higher prices. As of March, rents have increased 17% from a year ago and are growing at about four times the pre-pandemic pace. While some cities are addressing the problem with increased regulation to control increases, renters should be prepared to pay up and to explore alternatives prior to lease renewal.
That said, before you ditch the current place, remember that the cost of moving could be higher than the rent increase.
Talk to your landlord well in advance of renewal and remind them that you love where you live and want to stick around. See if you can limit the rental increase by signing a longer lease, or if you expect to
earn more money later in the year, ask for a delay in the newprice.