- Mask mandates and coronavirus restrictions are tumbling, as the Omicron variant continues to recede.
- Infectious disease expert Katelyn Jetelina (https://sph.uth.edu/cv/jetelina.pdf) has created a framework for how to think smartly about when and where to wear a mask.
- Her framework relies on two hyper-local metrics: % of positive tests, and case rates in each county.
Across the US, temperatures are warming up, and masks are coming off, as the Omicron variant continues to recede.
Many Democratic governors are beginning to unravel mask mandates for businesses that had been in place for months, while others have suggested that schoolchildren and teachers may begin taking off their masks in class in the coming weeks — for the first time during the pandemic.
“Governors are reading the tea leaves,” infectious disease expert Mike Osterholm, who directs the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy at the University of Minnesota, said on a Thursday podcast.
“I’m not saying they shouldn’t, but know that it never was based on some objective criteria. It was just ‘we’re done, we’re tired, and it’s acceptable enough now.'”
Dr. Rochelle Walensky, director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, acknowledged during a White House COVID-19 briefing earlier this week that “we want to give people a break from things like mask-wearing.” However, she also said that, from the CDC’s perspective, that should only happen when disease “metrics are better,” and hospitals aren’t overflowing anymore.
“Our hospitals need to be able to take care of people with heart attacks and strokes,” Walensky said. “Our emergency departments can’t be so overwhelmed that patients with emergent issues have to wait in line.”
In order to provide an honest and independent scientific framework for this moment, public health expert Katelyn Jetelina (https://sph.uth.edu/cv/jetelina.pdf), an assistant professor at the University of Texas, created her own chart, which she shared with Insider (adapted below). It gives people a framework for how to “ride the waves,” as she puts it, of any potential coronavirus surges from here on out.
“We need a solution that addresses the ebb and flow of viral dynamics,” she wrote in a recent Substack post, “leveraging the tools we have at hand.”
How to use this COVID chart
The chart is meant to be read based on two key measurements: the number of COVID-19 cases in your area, and the test positivity rate where you live. Both metrics are retrievable for all US counties on the CDC’s COVID-19 dashboards and can be found at the following link.
Current 7-days is Sat Feb 12 2022 – Fri Feb 18 2022 for case rate and Thu Feb 10 2022 – Wed Feb 16 2022 for percent positivity. The percent change in counties at each level of transmission is the absolute change compared to the previous 7-day period.
For example, in Seminole County, Florida, the percentage of positive tests is relatively high (16.67%), and the case rate per 100,000 puts the county in the red zone, at 179.09.
Katelyn Jetelina’s chart suggests, then, that people in Seminole County should:
- Still avoid indoor dining, for now
- And wear masks when indoors in public
It should be noted that as of the publish date of this post, not one county in Florida is below the >=100 cases per 100,000 threshold in the chart above. Only 3 counties at this time have met the threshold for >10% test positivity rate, Miami-Dade (7.13%), Broward (8.01%) and Palm Beach Counties (8.45%)
Sorted County Lists by Positivity and test rates: